Fantasy Pros grabs the rankings and current ADP of every player using all of the major fantasy platforms: ESPN, Yahoo, CBS and FFC. They put that information here. I’m grabbing my knife and dissecting that bitch like a frog in 8th grade bio. In these columns, I’ll be choosing three ballers at each position whose ADPs are way too low. You can call them sleepers, risk-reward reepers, Bill Cosby creepers, I don’t care. For whatever reason, you get these guys at a fraction of what they’re worth. They have third round value, but they’re ADP has them going in the late fourth. You don’t have to feel bad for reaching far above their ADP because, ultimately, they’re worth it.
Sam Bradford – Current ADP: 143 (QB18)
Floor
He gets hurt and misses lots of games, ultimately finishing as an unreliable fantasy player and a waste of a draft pick. He’s missed 31 of 80 possible career games, playing a full 16-game slate in two of his five NFL seasons.
Ceiling
Just being on the Eagles in Chip Kelly’s offense turns the Tim Couch‘s of the world into fantasy studs (I.E. Mark Sanchez & Nick Foles). Bradford, a much more talented slinger, could produce magic in this Philadelphia.
Bottomline
I’d be lying if I said I’m not nervous about Bradford holding up and the fact that he sat for the Eagles first preseason game against the Colts. But the Eagles did their research in an independent study this offseason to find the probability of re-injuring the ACL. I’m not going to sit hear and pretend I’m a doctor now, just read the blurb from Rotoworld:
Chip has confidence that Bradford can stay healthy and that’s why he’s easing him into actual game play. He hasn’t missed a single rep at training camp thus far and will be surrounded by the best supporting cast of his six-year career. The Eagles offensive line is ranked inside the top-10 in both run and pass blocking according to PFF and their shouldn’t be a lack of success through the air or on the ground with DeMarco Murray, Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles sharing carries. Bradford has a couple of young studs on the outside in Jordan Matthews, Nelson Agholor and under-the-radar threat Josh Huff. The Rams were basically a college team compared to what Philly offers Bradford’s fantasy upside.
Clearly, there’s risk in drafting the former number one overall pick out of Oklahoma. Well, there would be if you were picking him inside the top 8-10 rounds, but at 143 overall, you’re not sacrificing anything. Maybe a third-string running back you think could possibly emerge as a goal line poacher if the right guy breaks an ankle. Let’s get real. Bradford is as high-ceiling as they come this late in the draft. Gamble on Bradford this year and you’re likely to hit blackjack.
Carson Palmer – Current ADP: 148 (QB22)
The red flags surrounding Palmer seem to concern the fantasy community far more than they concern me. There are two of them:
- He’s old, 35.
- He’s coming off an ACL tear and a shoulder injury.
Let’s debunk these real quick. First off, age doesn’t really matter in terms of quarterbacks and fantasy production. Peyton is 39, he missed his year 35-year old season in 2011 but threw for 4,659 yards and 37 touchdowns the following year. Tom Brady is 38, he threw for 5,239 yards and 39 touchdowns when he was 35. Drew Brees is 36; last season? 4,952 yards and 33 touchdowns. Tony Romo just turned 35, completing 70% of his passes, throwing for 34 touchdowns and 9 interceptions while leading the NFL in QB Rating last year. You get the point. Sometimes fantasy quarterbacks age like fine wine. Word to viagra, Palmer can perform at his not-so-young age as he was on pace for the best statistical season of his career prior to the ACL tear in ’14.
Bringing us to the injury. We saw Tom Brady return to fine form in 2009 following an ACL tear. I understand you need to plant off the knee to throw but QB is the least mobile position on the football field by far. Palmer has no rushing upside to begin with so as long as he can set and throw, he’s good to go. All reports out of training camp have Palmer looking and feeling 100% healthy, practicing with zero restraints or limitations. On the subject of his shoulder injury Coach Bruce Arians said Carson Palmer has shown improved arm strength coming off the full year of rest. It’s good signs all around for the 35-year old veteran.
Now let’s get to the good shit. Last year Palmer only played in six games, five in which he was fully healthy. During those five games, Palmer averaged 18.8 fantasy points, ranking him 5th among all fantasy quarterbacks. Using PFF‘s ranking system, Palmer had the sixth highest quarterback rating during the games he played, was top-12 in accuracy percentage and had deep ball accuracy of 42%, putting him ahead of guys like Big Ben and Philip Rivers in that category.
Entering 2015, Palmer has one of the best supporting casts in the NFL. Starting with the big guys up front, the Cardinals have rather quickly put together a top-notch line adding Jared Veldheer in last year’s free agency who allowed only one sack all of last year. This offseason, Arizona went out and signed stud LG Mike Iupati and C A.Q. Shipley to bolster the line. Needless to say, Palmer will be well protected. The 2-time Pro Bowler has a dynamite threesome of pass catchers in Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd and John Brown. Fitz was on pace for an 85-1,300-5 statline with Palmer under center and John Brown is a candidate to catch 90-100 balls this year as he’s rapidly becoming a favorite target of Palmers and a fantasy breakout player to watch. Palmer also boasts and excellent pass catching duo in the backfield with Andre Ellington (46 catches in 12 games in ’14) and rookie David Johnson out of Northern Iowa.
The stars are aligning in Arizona and it’s time for you to get on board the Palmer express train. Even if it’s to fill in for terrific Tom. Their first five games are as follows: New Orleans Saints (25th ranked pass D), Chicago Bears (30th ranked), the 91% retired 49ers, the actually somewhat scary St. Louis Rams (still 19th ranked) and the Ndamukong Suh-less Detroit Lions. At pick 148 you’re spending virtually nothing for a player that could easily return QB1 numbers.
Andy Dalton – Current ADP: 170 (QB24)
Let’s start off by saying the entire Bengals offense is being criminally under-drafted. Jeremy Hill as RB10, A.J. Green as WR8 and Tyler Eifert at TE20; they’ll all outplay their positional ADPs. When you’re the quarterback and your teammates are doing well, you’re probably doing something right.
I know that no one, not even myself wants to roster Dalton as their QB1. But the hate has gone too far. Make no mistake, the redhead was awful in 2014. But that’s going to happen when Mohammed Sanu, 2014’s 47th rated WR (PFF), is your number one target. He played without A.J. Green, Marvin Jones and Tyler Eifert in 2014. Let’s not forget that Dalton was amazing in 2013, fully equipped with these three pass catchers, throwing for nearly 4,300 yards and 33 touchdowns. Without these the playmakers on the outside last year, Cincinnati was scared to let Dalton throw, evidenced by his 103 fewer pass attempts than the season prior.
Expect to see Dalton unleash way more often in 2015 with Green returning to run deep routes for the striped team from Cincinnati. Eifert, an extremely skilled pass catcher, running routes between the hash marks will open up the outside for both Green and Marvin Jones. Jones, let’s not forget, caught 10 touchdowns back in 2013. Dalton also has an excellent pass catching tandem coming out of the backfield in Gio Bernard and Jeremy Hill. Cincinnati boasts the NFL’s sixth best offensive line entering 2015 and is the oil that keeps this offense fueled.
The NFL is a “what have you done for me lately league?”, which more often than not, helps fantasy owners in their draft. Dalton is the perfect example. 2013 he was great, 2014 he wasn’t so great. People assume his value is shot, but all signs point towards a huge bounce back for not just Dalton but the entire Bengals offense. They have very little weakness on the offensive side of the ball and it all starts with the quarterback. I’m not saying Dalton is back to being a top four fantasy QB, but he’s being drafted as a QB2/3 meanwhile he should flirt with borderline QB1 numbers.
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