“You have to take your own bold approach, and if you do you will be rewarded with success. Or calamitous failure. That can happen too.”
In these columns, I’m running through all 32 NFL teams and making a bold fantasy football and/or statistical prediction for each one. When January comes around I’ll either be really, really ridiculously good looking or I’ll end up losing my 308 Twitter followers 😥 Please don’t draft your fantasy team based on these, or do, I don’t care. Anyways, up today we have the AFC East:
Miami Dolphins
DeVante Parker does his best Odell Beckham Jr. impersonation.
A lower body injury forces Parker to miss OTAs and training camp, but he returns to climb the ranks not only as the leading fantasy WR in the AFC East, but as a top two fantasy rookie receiver.
It’s not the most ideal situation given the depth of talent in Miami, but when Parker gets fully healthy, he’ll be the most athletic and tallest receiver that the Dolphins possess. At 6-foot-3, 218lbs Parker is at least three inches taller and 15 pounds heavier than the next three wideouts on the depth chart: Jarvis Landry (5-foot-11, 202), Kenny Stills (6-foot-0, 198) and Greg Jennings (6-foot-0, 198).
You’re crazy if you don’t think Tannehill is going to zone in on the super talented Parker in the redzone. The former Louisville Cardinal receiver is at his best when the ball is in the air and he’s using his 37″ vertical jump to outreach undersized d-backs. Parker, equipped with 4.45 speed, has dropped a total of THREE passes since 2012. He’s just as capable of going over the middle as he is taking the tops off of defenders evidenced by a nearly 20 yards per catch average during his senior season at Louisville.
New England Patriots
This might be the boldest prediction I make all offseason. Jonas Gray, that guy who had that big game that one time for the Patriots last year, will be the Patriots top fantasy running back in 2015 finishing the season with 8+ rushing touchdowns. Hear me out before you leave the site and go type youjizz into your url bar.
At the moment, Gray finds his name penciled in under LeGarrette Blount on the Patriots depth chart, and desrvedly so. Blount’s track record is proven with the Pats, finding paydirt 16 times in his last 18 appearances for New England. But Belichick’s track record is also proven: in not giving a fuck as to who is the man getting the carries on a week-to-week basis. Blount failed his conditioning test this week and was placed on the active/NFI list, which isn’t a big deal, but cause for concern for a back that’s already flirting with a linebacker type number in the ‘weight’ section of his bio.
Blount will miss the Patriots first game of the season because of his marijuana charge which should queitly open the gates for a “Gray-Day”. The Pats will open up against the Steelers, the NFL’s 7th worst rush defense in 2014 (YPC), without Tom Brady meaning a ground and pound gameplan should be in full effect.
That big game I mentioned before from Gray happened to be a 201-yard, 4-touchdown outing against Indy. Had Gray not missed a meeting following the breakout performance in 2014, who knows what would’ve came. The 25-year old out of Notre Dame handled double digit carries in four games last season, three of them resulting in a YPC average of over 5.0. If he can capitalize in Week 1, he’ll give good ole’ Billy B no choice but a shot at the top RB spot.
New York Jets
The Jets aren’t going to have a single fantasy player finish inside the top 25 at their given position. Sorry Jets fans, but as long as Geno Smith is under center my fantasy picks will remain Gang Green-less. At least their defense will be a DEF1 if that’s a thing.
As was stated in Geno Smith’s 2015 player outlook, “According to PFF, Geno was the 26th ranked quarterback in terms of accuracy percentage, the third worst deep passer (leading only Blakes Bortles and Derek Carr), and dead last under pressure, all while having the second most time in the pocket among quarterbacks.” Adding weapons to the outside won’t make him an accurate quarterback, resulting in huge statistical dropoffs for both Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Decker, who I actually think is more capable of top-25 numbers than Marshall at this point in his career, will lose a big chunk of targets to the former Bears wideout. Marshall, on the other hand, dominates in the redzone, a part of the field New York sees as much as Ray Charles sees, well, anything.
Chris Ivory, who finished as RB19 in fantasy last season, will have to share carries with about 46 other running backs in the Jets crowded backfield. NYJ signed both Stevan Ridley and Zac Stacy to mess shit up from a fantasy perspective all while bringing in Chan Gailey to run a spread offense in New York. His scheme plays more towards Ridley and Bilal Powells‘ strengths as opposed to Ivorys. Either way you look at it, carry sharing is inevitable in the Big Apple.
I actually like Jace Amaro at the tight end position as a deep sleeper, but again, the offense in its own right hurts his value. He struggled tremendously with drops as a rookie and he’s already suffering from back issues at OTAs so his health is a concern going into training camp.
Buffalo Bills
LeSean McCoy either finishes as a top two fantasy RB or he finishes outside the top 12.
On one hand, as long as McCoy stays healthy, the former Eagle should get all the opporunity in the world to regain his RB2 overall status. Under new HC Rex Ryan and OC Greg Roman the Bills will live and die by the ground. The quarterback situation in Buffalo is about as bad as it gets meaning Shady is the end-all, be-all for their offense. A hobbled, aging Fred Jackson means LeSean will have 0 competition for early down, goal line or passing down work. McCoy should flirt with 350+ touches; last year only three players finished with 350+ touches: DeMarco Murray, Le’Veon Bell and Matt Forte (finished as RB1, RB2 and RB4 respectively).
But, being the focal point of an offense with a shit quarterback means stacked boxes. McCoy’s style of shifty running could mean 0 and negative yard runs early and often like we saw in Philly too many times. Shady’ll be running behind the NFL’s 29th ranked run blocking offensive line in Buffalo. The offense added a bunch of weapons this offseason but still seams far from likely to light up scoreboards. Not to mention how tough the AFC East division will be to run against; The Jets already had one of the best dlines in the NFL before drafting inside stud Leonard Williams out of USC, the Dolphins acquired Ndamukong Suh, so there’s that and the Patriots are the Patriots, so.
As incredible as Shady is to watch, it’s hard for me to dig my teeth into his fantasy upside in 2015. I’m leaning towards the latter on this bold prediction.
Big Dogs Gotta Eat Fantasy Football 